investdataflake ｜ CELH: 冒起中的 energy drink 健康飲品 (開放試閱版)

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增長:

估值:

競爭力:

7為最高

預估1年內股價升幅: 35% to 70%

業務簡介: 健康飲品 Energy Drink

Celsius 是新冒起的健康飲品 Energy Drink ，正逐步取代糖類的汽水飲料的市場份額。22年8月，Celsius與 Pepsi 百事(PEP) 達成戰略性伙伴關係，Celsius 將共享Pepsi於美國的銷售網絡，尤其是在零售，便利點及餐飲的擴張。於1Q23公司於便利點網絡的擴張尤為明顯，成為主要的 growth driver。而Pepsi 將投資 5.5 億美元於 CELH 的可兌換優先股 (換股價75美元，可兌換733萬股，8.5%股權)。

截至今年首季，根據電商 Amazon 的數據，Celsius 為 Energy Drink 中的第二名品牌，market share 19.1%; 首名的 Monster 為22.3%，而第三名的 Red Bull 為12.8%。而根據 SPINS IRI，Celsius 於美國 Energy Drink 的market share 為7.5%，排名第三，亦較去年同期的3.7%倍增。同時根據SPINS 的數據，Celsius 於3月底前4周的銷售增長為124% yoy ，遠高於整個 Energy Drink 界別的12%。而公司亦拓展在餐飲以外的銷售據點，例如大學，醫院，酒店，賭場等。消費股最緊要睇客戶感覺，現節錄 Amazon 網站的部份用戶 review，看來相當正面，除了健康及新鮮的口感外，口味多元化也是公司的獨特之處。再比較用戶對 Monster Energy 的 review, Celsius 的 feedback 其實更為正面:

A little expensive, but worth it for all of the delicious flavors. CELSIUS energy drinks have become my go-to source of healthy energy, providing a refreshing boost that leaves me feeling both revitalized and focused.

What sets CELSIUS apart is the refreshing and invigorating feeling it brings. With each sip, I can feel the blend of ingredients working to fuel my body and mind. It’s a noticeable difference that sets these energy drinks apart from others on the market.

One of the things I appreciate the most about CELSIUS is its commitment to health. These drinks are packed with beneficial ingredients such as green tea extract, ginger, and vitamins, giving me a sense of confidence that I’m making a healthier choice compared to traditional energy drinks.

The CELSIUS Official Variety Pack offers a delightful assortment of flavors that not only provide a boost of energy but also excite the taste buds. This pack is perfect for those who crave variety and enjoy exploring different flavor profiles. Let’s dive into the review and highlight the taste differences found within this pack.

One of the standout features of the CELSIUS Official Variety Pack is the wide range of flavors it offers. Each can in the pack introduces a unique taste experience, ensuring that you never get bored with your energy drink choices. From tangy to refreshing, and from fruity to bold, this assortment caters to various flavor preferences, making it suitable for a diverse range of palates.

I do not drink energy drinks BUT I LOVE these drinks! I originally tried them at work one night because I just wanted some caffeine but I ended up loving them and now get them all the time.

I love the sparkling flavors, all of the ones I’ve tried! I do not personally care for the Vibe or the tropical vibe flavors as much though. I also will get the green tea ones sometimes BUT my first choice is the regular sparkling ones.

I drink one of these before my morning workouts. I’ve been a really big fan of specialty coffee for a long time, but Celsius provides so much bang for my buck that I now drink about 1/3 of the amount of coffee I used to. I’ve tried other energy drinks, but most of them either don’t taste as good as Celsius or they make me feel weird.

Celsius 於 Amazon 的銷售點

公司於22年下半年錄得虧損，原因是把分銷網絡轉往 Pepsi 的轉接期，需向原有的分銷商支付終止合約費用。而把存貨轉往 Pepsi 的轉接，再加4Q的季節性較弱，4Q的yoy 增長回落至 71%，qoq 按季倒退 5.5%。在把銷售網絡整合至Pepsi後，1Q23 營業額己回復至 95%/46% 的yoy/qoq 高增長，毛利率按季稍回落至43.8%，原因是存貨撥備以及貨運成本上升; 惟純利率改善至 13.3%。

展望23年全年，管理層認為2Q的毛利率仍有壓力，主要是因整合至Pepsi 銷售網絡的成本，但整合期過後，毛利率可望企在 mid 40’s % 水平。管理層計劃在夏天推出不同口味的飲品，擴大每個零售點的佔據位置及平均銷售。公司無就未來提供指引，但融入Pepsi 的銷售網絡才發揮作用，展望2Q/3Q可達中至高雙位數的營業額按季(qoq)增長，而按年(yoy)增長在90%水平。而夏季市場推廣開支增加，預計2Q的純利率回落至11%水平，但下半年可回升至12%以上。

初步預計23年營業額12.6億美元，增長93%; 而純利 1.57億美元，純利率 12.5%，預測市盈率(PE)73倍。相對 Energy drink 的領導者 Monster (MNST) 營收規模逾60億美元，純利率20%水平; 但只得低雙位數營收增長，預測PE 37 倍。只要被視為健康飲品的 Energy drink 取代糖類汽水飲料的趨勢持續，CELH 仍有廣濶的成長空間，有望在數年內追上接近 MNST 目前的規模。

CELH目前之分銷網絡

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