貓奴 ｜ Cathie Wood 在特斯拉、Meta、Nvidia、AI 等問題上大聲疾呼 — Barrons.com
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By Evie Liu
作者：Evie Liu
Cathie Wood, founder and CEO of ARK Investment Management, is
famous for her unwavering conviction in disruptive innovation and the companies
behind it. The firm’s ARK funds gained prominence, and legions of investors, in
2020 as interest rates plummeted and growth stocks lifted off, although gains
turned to losses in the next two years as the companies stumbled and rates
rose.
ARK Investment
Management的創始人兼首席執行官凱茜·伍德以其對顛覆性創新及其背後的公司的堅定信念而聞名。隨着利率暴跌和成長型股票的上漲，該公司的ARK基金在2020年聲名顯赫，吸引了大批投資者，儘管由於公司跌跌撞撞和利率上升，未來兩年漲幅轉爲虧損。
This year, ARK is riding high again, paced by huge gains in stocks
such as Tesla (ticker: TSLA), Coinbase Global (COIN), and Roku (ROKU). The
firm’s flagship ARK Innovation exchange-traded fund (ARKK), with about $8
billion of assets, gained 54.5% through July 26, compared with a 19% increase
in the S&P 500 index. ARK’s other funds, which invest in themes such as the
genomic revolution, autonomous tech and robotics, and financial-technology
innovation, similarly are outpacing the broad stock market, although they are
still well below their early-2021 peaks.
今年，在特斯拉（股票代碼：TSLA）、Coinbase Global（COIN）和Roku（ROKU）等股票大幅上漲的推動下，ARK再次走高。截至7月26日，該公司的旗艦ARK Innovation交易所交易基金（ARKK）擁有約80億美元的資產，上漲了54.5％，而標準普爾500指數的漲幅爲19％。ARK的其他基金投資於基因組革命、自主技術和機器人以及金融技術創新等主題，儘管仍遠低於2021年初的峯值，但也超過了整個股票市場。
Barron’s talked with Wood in mid-July about future innovations,
including her bold predictions for Tesla’s robotaxi fleet, her bullish view of
cryptocurrencies, and the beneficiaries of generative AI. An edited version of
the conversation follows.
巴倫在7月中旬與伍德就未來的創新進行了交談，包括她對特斯拉robotaxi車隊的大膽預測、她對加密貨幣的看漲看法以及生成式人工智能的受益者。對話的編輯版本如下。
Barron’s: You were a big buyer of Tesla stock last fall and winter
as the shares sold off. Now that Tesla has rebounded, you have been selling.
What is the thinking behind your recent sales?
巴倫週刊：去年秋天和冬天，由於特斯拉股票被拋售，你是特斯拉股票的大買家。現在特斯拉已經反彈，你一直在賣出。你最近的銷售背後的想法是什麼？
Cathie Wood:The main reason for the trade is portfolio management.
Tesla has gone up more than 2 1/2 times in the past six months, and some of our
other stocks are still near their lows. When Tesla moves above 10% of the
portfolio, we would cut it back and redeploy into other stocks that we think
aren’t well understood.
Cathie Wood：交易的主要原因是投資組合管理。在過去的六個月中，特斯拉已經上漲了2.5倍以上，而我們的其他一些股票仍接近低點。當特斯拉超過投資組合的10％時，我們會將其削減並重新部署到其他我們認爲不太了解的股票上。
Yet, you maintain a $2,000 price target on the stock. It recently
traded for $264. You have bold projections for electric-vehicle sales and
ride-sharing revenue — too bold, many skeptics say.
但是，您維持該股的目標股價爲2,000美元。它最近的交易價格爲264美元。許多懷疑論者說，你對電動汽車銷量和拼車收入有大膽的預測——太大膽了。
Our confidence has increased since Tesla is cutting prices. It is
one of the few auto manufacturers that can afford to do that, because it is
riding down the cost curve of consumer electronic batteries. This is going to
hurt the other manufacturers whose costs are much higher. Last year, Tesla sold
seven million electric vehicles globally. By 2027, we expect 60 million to be
sold and Tesla to essentially keep its market share.
自從特斯拉降價以來，我們的信心有所增強。它是爲數不多的有能力做到這一點的汽車製造商之一，因爲它正在降低消費電子電池的成本曲線。這將傷害其他成本高得多的製造商。去年，特斯拉在全球售出了700萬輛電動汽車。到2027年，我們預計將售出6000萬輛，特斯拉將基本保持其市場份額。
You also have lofty projections for Tesla’s robotaxi business:
$227 billion in Ebitda [earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and
amortization] by 2027. That’s more than Apple’s [AAPL] current Ebitda. Why such
confidence in the company’s robotaxi rollout?
你對特斯拉的機器人出租車業務也有很高的預測：到2027年，息稅折舊攤銷前利潤（扣除利息、稅項、折舊和攤銷前的收益）將達到2270億美元。這超過了蘋果 [AAPL] 目前的息稅折舊攤銷前利潤。爲什麼對公司推出的 robotaxi 如此有信心？
We already have proof of concept for
autonomous cars. I took a ride in a Cruise automation
car in December and told it to go to my son’s apartment in San Francisco. It
took me there and back in about half an hour of riding.
我們已經有了自動駕駛汽車的概念驗證。我在 12 月乘坐了 Cruise 自動化車，叫它去我兒子在舊金山的公寓。在大約半小時的騎行之後，我去了那裏然後回來。
Tesla’s competitive advantage is the billions of miles of
real-world driving data it has compiled, which are used to train models to
teach the car how to adjust to rare situations. No one has been able to do this
because they don’t have anywhere near as much data.
特斯拉的競爭優勢在於它彙編了數十億英里的現實世界駕駛數據，這些數據用於訓練模型，教會汽車如何適應罕見情況。沒有人能夠做到這一點，因爲他們沒有那麼多的數據。
We believe Tesla is in the core position to be the autonomous taxi
platform in the U.S., and it will price the service below Uber and Lyft. With
new technologies, what causes costs to go down is unit growth. As with EVs, we
believe Tesla will pass the cost declines along as it scales.
我們認爲，特斯拉處於成爲美國自動駕駛出租車平台的核心地位，其服務定價將低於Uber和Lyft。有了新技術，導致成本下降的是單位增長。與電動汽車一樣，我們相信隨着規模的擴大，特斯拉將承受成本的下降。
Is it reasonable to expect that people will feel safe riding in
robotaxis in three or four years?
可以合理地期望人們在三四年後乘坐機器人出租車會感到安全？
I don’t know about you, but I’d prefer to get into a driverless
car that I trusted than one with a driver I know nothing about. There are about
45,000 fatalities a year from auto accidents, and 80% to 85% of those are
caused by human error. If we take humans out of the situation, there will be
many fewer accidents. We already have data to show this: A fully self-driving
Tesla has one accident every 3.2 million miles, whereas a Tesla with human
drivers has one every 600,000 miles. The average car has one every 500,000
miles.
我不認識你，但我寧願坐一輛我信任的無人駕駛汽車，也不願坐一輛我一無所知的司機的無人駕駛汽車。每年約有45,000人死於車禍，其中80％至85％是由人爲錯誤造成的。如果我們讓人類擺脫困境，事故就會少得多。我們已經有數據可以證明這一點：完全自動駕駛的特斯拉每320萬英里發生一次事故，而擁有人類駕駛員的特斯拉每60萬英里就會發生一起事故。普通汽車每 500,000 英里就有一輛車。
You also sold Nvidia [NVDA] recently.
Why?
你最近還出售了 Nvidia [NVDA]。爲什麼？
A lot of people have made a big deal
that our flagship fund no longer owns the stock. For
people who don’t think that we pay any attention to valuation, it was valuation
that got us to take it down. Nvidia is selling at a very high multiple of
revenue right now.
很多人大肆宣稱我們的旗艦基金不再擁有這隻股票。對於那些認爲我們根本不關注估值的人來說，正是估值促使我們下調估值。Nvidia目前的銷售收入倍數非常高。
You also bought Meta Platforms [META]
last month for the first time. What attracted
you?
你上個月還首次購買了 Meta Platforms [META]。是什麼吸引了你？
Facebook’s shift from the metaverse to AI [artificial
intelligence] is one of the big reasons that the stock has turned around. The
other reason is, the company’s engagement numbers have been better than
expected. Meta has a segmentation strategy — older people are on Facebook;
younger people are on Instagram and WhatsApp. It remains to be seen for
Threads, but I don’t think it will be the same as Twitter.
Facebook 從元宇宙向人工智能（人工智能）的轉變是該股扭轉的重要原因之一。另一個原因是，該公司的參與度好於預期。Meta 有細分策略——老年人在 Facebook 上；年輕人在 Instagram 和 WhatsApp 上。Threads 還有待觀察，但我認爲它不會和 Twitter 一樣。
Coinbase Global, the cryptocurrency exchange, is another of your
holdings. The stock has doubled in the past month as the regulatory landscape
appears to be shifting. What is the outlook?
加密貨幣交易所Coinbase Global是您的另一筆股份。由於監管格局似乎正在發生變化，該股在過去一個月中翻了一番。前景如何？
Something very important changed in the past six months. At first,
we were focused only on [regulatory efforts of] the executive branch —
basically, those of the Securities and Exchange Commission and its chair, Gary
Gensler. But the judicial and legislative branches of government are moving
into motion and basically saying that the SEC has overstepped its bounds when
it comes to its authorities as a regulator.
在過去的六個月裏，一些非常重要的變化。起初，我們只關注行政部門的 [監管工作]，基本上是美國證券交易委員會及其主席加里·根斯勒的監管工作。但是政府的司法和立法部門正在採取行動，基本上是說美國證券交易委員會在作爲監管機構的權力方面已經超越了界限。
The court is questioning the SEC’s charter. And, odds makers think
the SEC will lose its cases against Grayscale Investment and Ripple Labs.
法院正在質疑美國證券交易委員會的章程。而且，賠率製造商認爲，美國證券交易委員會將敗訴 Grayscale
Investment 和 Ripple Labs 的訴訟。
[Shortly after Barron’s interviewed Wood, a U.S. district court
judge ruled that Ripple’s XRP tokenisn’t a security when sold on public
exchanges, but an unregistered security when directly sold to institutional
investors. The ruling is generally viewed as a victory for the cryptocurrency
industry, which is battling the SEC over whether its products fall under the
regulator’s jurisdiction.]
[在《巴倫週刊》採訪伍德後不久，一位美國地方法院法官裁定，瑞波幣的XRP代幣在公開交易所出售時不是證券，而是直接出售給機構投資者時未註冊的證券。該裁決被普遍視爲加密貨幣行業的勝利，該行業正在就其產品是否屬於監管機構的管轄範圍與美國證券交易委員會作鬥爭。]
Meanwhile, the legislative branch has awakened to the fact that
crypto is a new asset class and we might need new legislatures to give the
regulators some guidance. Those two branches of government have given us great
confidence that Coinbase will come out of this as a winner. Many Coinbase
competitors either haven’t entered the U.S. or moved out because of our
regulatory system. Coinbase has stayed to fight. We think they’ll be rewarded
accordingly.
同時，立法部門已經意識到加密貨幣是一種新的資產類別，我們可能需要新的立法機構來爲監管機構提供一些指導。這兩個政府部門給了我們極大的信心，相信Coinbase將以贏家的身份脫穎而出。許多Coinbase競爭對手要麼沒有進入美國，要麼因爲我們的監管體系而遷出美國。Coinbase 一直在戰鬥。我們認爲他們會得到相應的回報。
Why do you remain bullish on cryptocurrencies?
爲什麼你仍然看好加密貨幣？
We see three revolutions taking place because of crypto. Bitcoin
will dominate the first one, the money revolution. The biggest proof is that
when regional-bank stocks were falling apart earlier this year, Bitcoin went
from $19,000 to $30,000. That was a flight to safety, and we expect it to
accelerate. The centralized monetary system we have today is an aberration. We
could be going back to the future — before the Federal Reserve existed —
under a digital, rules-based monetary system with no government oversight.
我們看到加密貨幣正在發生三次革命。比特幣將主導第一場革命，即貨幣革命。最大的證據是，今年早些時候，當區域銀行股票分崩離析時，比特幣從19,000美元上漲到30,000美元。那是一次逃往安全地帶的飛行，我們預計它會加速。我們今天的中央貨幣體系是一種反常現象。在沒有政府監督的基於規則的數字貨幣體系下，我們可能會回到美聯儲存在之前的未來。
The second revolution is in financial services, or the so-called
DeFi [decentralized finance], which will be Ethereum-based. There are a number
of infrastructure providers out there. It’s the survival of the fittest, and
I’m excited to see who wins.
第二場革命是金融服務，或者所謂的DeFi（去中心化金融），它將基於以太坊。那裏有許多基礎設施提供商。這是適者生存，我很高興看到誰贏了。
The third is digital property rights, or what many call NFT
[nonfungible tokens] or the metaverse. People are already buying real estate in
virtual worlds. Our young research associates come into the office wearing
jeans and T-shirts with no logos, but they are getting their status in the
virtual world.
第三個是數字產權，或者許多人所說的NFT（不可替代的代幣）或元宇宙。人們已經在虛擬世界中購買房地產。我們的年輕研究人員穿着沒有徽標的牛仔褲和T恤走進辦公室，但他們在虛擬世界中的地位正在提高。
Investors are obsessed with developments in artificial
intelligence. What sorts of companies will benefit from generative AI, and how
can they seize the opportunity?
投資者沉迷於人工智能的發展。哪些類型的公司將從生成式人工智能中受益，他們如何抓住機會？
When we view stocks through the lens of AI, we look for three
things. The first is domain expertise and visionary management; the second is
good distribution, and the third, critically important, is proprietary data
that can be used to train AI models to improve products and services, cut
costs, and increase productivity.
當我們從人工智能的角度看待股票時，我們會尋找三件事。第一個是領域專業知識和有遠見的管理；第二個是良好的分發，第三個是專有數據，這些數據可用於訓練人工智能模型，以改善產品和服務，削減成本並提高生產力。
Today, we pay knowledge workers $32 trillion globally. If we’re
right, this is the assembly-line moment for knowledge workers. Those costs are
going to come down, and productivity is going to go up dramatically. Any
company not thinking about this is going to have problems competitively,
because many markets will become winner-take-most.
如今，我們在全球範圍內向知識工作者支付了 32 萬億美元。如果我們是對的，那麼現在是知識工作者的裝配線時刻。這些成本將下降，生產率將急劇提高。任何不考慮這個問題的公司都會在競爭中遇到問題，因爲許多市場將成爲贏家最多的。
Twilio [TWLO] has data on trillions of interactions between
businesses and consumers, so we think the company is going to be a huge
beneficiary. We also believe Teladoc [TDOC] has the best shot at becoming the
backbone of healthcare information in the U.S. Since doctors on Teladoc have to
see the electronic health records of patients, the company is gathering
information at a rapid pace. In the future, Teladoc models could give doctors
recommendations on the best course of treatment.
Twilio [TWLO] 擁有有關企業與消費者之間數萬億次互動的數據，因此我們認爲該公司將成爲巨大的受益者。我們還認爲，Teladoc [TDOC] 最有可能成爲美國醫療保健信息的支柱。由於Teladoc的醫生必須查看患者的電子健康記錄，因此該公司正在快速收集信息。將來，Teladoc模型可以爲醫生提供有關最佳治療方案的建議。
Which other disruptive technologies are in the pipeline?
還有哪些顛覆性技術正在開發中？
I expect to see more cures of rare diseases, because various kinds
of gene sequencing are enabling us to identify mutations in our genome that
Crispr gene editing is able to reprogram.
我希望看到更多的罕見疾病治療方法，因爲各種基因測序使我們能夠識別出Crispr基因編輯能夠重新編程的基因組中的突變。
As autonomous taxi platforms take off, the costs associated with
them will fall and the roads will get more congested. That means more commerce
will have to go to the skies. We’re excited about drone delivery of food,
groceries, and medical supplies. You’re going to see more drones and EVTOLs [electric
vertical takeoff and landing vehicles] in the skies. Within a couple of years,
you’ll be able to take an air taxi from Manhattan to JFK for the price of a
taxi today.
隨着自動駕駛出租車平台的起飛，與之相關的成本將下降，道路將變得更加擁擠。這意味着更多的商業將不得不飛向天空。我們對無人機運送食物、雜貨和醫療用品感到興奮。你將在空中看到更多的無人機和evtols（電動垂直起降飛行器）。再過幾年，你就可以乘坐空中出租車從曼哈頓到肯尼迪國際機場，價格相當於今天的出租車。
Is there a stock about which you once had conviction and then
changed your mind?
有沒有一隻你曾經信念過然後改變主意的股票？
本頁的譯文內容由軟件翻譯。富途將竭力但卻不能保證翻譯內容之準確和可靠，亦不會承擔因任何不準確或遺漏而引起的任何損失或損害。
風險提示：以上內容僅作為作者或者嘉賓的觀點，不代表富途的任何立場，不構成與富途相關的任何投資建議。在作出任何投資決定前，投資者應根據自身情況考慮投資產品相關的風險因素，並於需要時咨詢專業投資顧問意見。富途竭力但不能證實上述內容的真實性、準確性和原創性，對此富途不做任何保證和承諾。
