西門談浪 ｜ Weekly US Stock Market Review – 6 Jul 2024 波浪理論/圖表派: 一周美股回顧
Weekly US Stock Market Review – 6
Jul 2024
The S&P 500 Index went
up 1.95%
this week and closed at 5567.
We maintain the mid term trend
for SPX is uptrend. The
SPX has a rally
week in the past few
days to celebrate the holiday,
which successfully break the 5535
resistance.
Our long-term labeling
on the SPX is we are in the Super Cycle 3,
after Super Cycle
1 bull ends at 1576 in 2007, and
Super Cycle 2 bear market ends at 667 in 2009.
We’re in the Cycle 1
bull market of Super Cycle 3. Cycle 1
wave have 5 primary waves, and Primary
I finished at 2134 in 2015 (with 1467 points), and Primary II ended
at 1810 in 2016, then we proceed to Primary III. We
expect the Primary III will arrive 10,000 points.
In the medium-term, Primary III has 5 Major waves,
where Major 1 closed at 3394 in 2020 (with 1583 points), and Major 2
ended at 2192, and we’re in Major 3 now. The Major 3 wave will have
5 Intermediate waves, the Intermediate i has already finished
at 4818, and Intermediate ii has
finished at 3491. We’re now in the Intermediate iii rally.
Our initial target for Intermediate iii will be 7000-7500.
The Intermediate iii wave will have 5 Minor waves,
which we have the Minor 1 at 4100, Minor 2 at 3764, and we’re in
the Minor 3 rally of Intermediate iii. The Minor 3 will have 5 Minute
waves, and we have 4195 as Minute i, 3808 as Minute ii. The
Minute iii will have 5 Micro waves, Micro 1 at
4607, Micro 2 at 4103, Micro 3 at 5264,
Micro 4 at 4953, and we are in the Micro 5 rally of Minute iii. The
market managed to
break through the 5535 resistance, which
continues to extend the Micro 5 wave. With
the extermely overbough status, we know the
top is near, while we
just don’t know if it’s there yet.
In the coming week, the short-term support lies at 5461
and 5535,
while resistance is at 5594
and 5670.
The short-term MACD enter a bullish
crosss, and the RSI is at highly
overbought status on
Friday closing.
波浪理論/圖表派:
一周美股回顧
– 6
Jul 2024
本周SPX
(標普500)
指數上升1.95%，收於5567點。我們維持中期趨勢是上行趨勢。本周市場大幅上漲，成功突破了5535
點阻力，也許美股也需要通過一個大漲來慶祝國慶假期？
我們長期對於SPX指數的判斷，是2009年熊市的Super
Cycle 2在667點結束之後，我們進入了Cycle
1 的牛市。Cycle
1細分成爲5個Primary浪，其中Primary
I在2015年的2134點結束(上漲1467點)，Primary
II在2016年的1810點結束，我們之後進入Primary
III浪。我們預計Primary
III浪可以抵達10000點左右。
中期而言，Primary
III又細分成5個Major浪，
Major
1浪在2020年的3394點(上漲1583點)，Major
2浪在2192點，之後我們進入了Major
3浪。Major
3浪又細分成5個Intermediate浪，其中Intermediate
i浪已經在4818點結束，Intermediate
ii浪在3491點結束，我們目前處於Intermediate
iii浪上漲之中。我們給與Intermediate
iii的初步目標是7000-7500點。
短期來説，Intermediate
iii浪會分爲5個Minor浪，其中Minor
1浪在4100點，
Minor
2浪在3764點，我們目前處於Minor
3浪上升之中。Minor
3浪會分爲5個Minute
浪，其中4195是Minute
i浪，3808點是Minute
ii浪，我們進入Minute
iii浪。Minute
iii浪之中，4607點是Micro
1浪，4103點是Micro
2浪，Micro
3浪在5264點，Micro
4浪在4953點，我們進入了Micro
5浪。本周的市場成功突破5535點附近阻力，成功延續了Micro
5浪。考慮到市場的高度超買，以及負背離的出現，我們認爲短期頂部就在附近，只是我們目前無法確認。
下週短期的支持位是5461和5535點，阻力位在5594和5670點。短期的MACD進入牛交叉，
RSI在週五收市處於高度超買狀態。
