西門談浪 ｜ Weekly US Stock Market Review – 27 Jul 2024 波浪理論/圖表派: 一周美股回顧
Weekly US Stock Market Review – 27
Jul 2024
The S&P 500 Index went
down 0.83%
this week and closed at 5459.
We maintain the mid term trend
for SPX is uptrend. The
pull back of SPX has confirmed the Minute iii ends at 5669 points,
the Minute iv pull back starts.
Our long-term labeling
on the SPX is we are in the Super Cycle 3,
after Super Cycle
1 bull ends at 1576 in 2007, and
Super Cycle 2 bear market ends at 667 in 2009.
We’re in the Cycle 1
bull market of Super Cycle 3. Cycle 1
wave have 5 primary waves, and Primary
I finished at 2134 in 2015 (with 1467 points), and Primary II ended
at 1810 in 2016, then we proceed to Primary III. We
expect the Primary III will arrive 10,000 points.
In the medium-term, Primary III has 5 Major waves,
where Major 1 closed at 3394 in 2020 (with 1583 points), and Major 2
ended at 2192, and we’re in Major 3 now. The Major 3 wave will have
5 Intermediate waves, the Intermediate i has already finished
at 4818, and Intermediate ii has
finished at 3491. We’re now in the Intermediate iii rally.
Our initial target for Intermediate iii will be 7000-7500.
The Intermediate iii wave will have 5 Minor waves,
which we have the Minor 1 at 4100, Minor 2 at 3764, and we’re in
the Minor 3 rally of Intermediate iii. The Minor 3 will have 5 Minute
waves, and we have 4195 as Minute i, 3808 as Minute ii. The
Minute iii will have 5 Micro waves, Micro 1 at
4607, Micro 2 at 4103, Micro 3 at 5264,
Micro 4 at 4953, and we are in the Micro 5 / Minute iii ended at 5669
pivot. The market pull back this week confirmed the Minute iii top,
with the Minute iv started. Our minimal target for Minute iv is 5102
pivot, the 2nd
target is 4953 pivot, with 3rd
target at 4607 pivot. The extreme target for Minute iv is 4203 pivot
but we believe the chance is very small.
In the coming week, the short-term support lies at 5446
and 5361,
while resistance is at 5594 and
5533. The short-term MACD
continue with a bearish crosss, and the RSI is at
balance status on
Friday closing.
波浪理論/圖表派:
一周美股回顧
27
Jul 2024
本周SPX
(標普500)
指數下跌0.83%，收於5459點。我們維持中期趨勢是上行趨勢。本周市場繼續回調，并且確認了Minute
iii浪在5669點，我們進入Minute
iv浪回調。
我們長期對於SPX指數的判斷，是2009年熊市的Super
Cycle 2在667點結束之後，我們進入了Cycle
1 的牛市。Cycle
1細分成爲5個Primary浪，其中Primary
I在2015年的2134點結束(上漲1467點)，Primary
II在2016年的1810點結束，我們之後進入Primary
III浪。我們預計Primary
III浪可以抵達10000點左右。
中期而言，Primary
III又細分成5個Major浪，
Major
1浪在2020年的3394點(上漲1583點)，Major
2浪在2192點，之後我們進入了Major
3浪。Major
3浪又細分成5個Intermediate浪，其中Intermediate
i浪已經在4818點結束，Intermediate
ii浪在3491點結束，我們目前處於Intermediate
iii浪上漲之中。我們給與Intermediate
iii的初步目標是7000-7500點。
短期來説，Intermediate
iii浪會分爲5個Minor浪，其中Minor
1浪在4100點，
Minor
2浪在3764點，我們目前處於Minor
3浪上升之中。Minor
3浪會分爲5個Minute
浪，其中4195是Minute
i浪，3808點是Minute
ii浪，我們進入Minute
iii浪。Minute
iii浪之中，4607點是Micro
1浪，4103點是Micro
2浪，Micro
3浪在5264點，Micro
4浪在4953點，Micro
5 /Minute
iii浪在5669點結束。本周市場如我們上周所預期的那樣，回調到5446點下方，所以我們確認Minute
iii浪已經結束，我們進入Minute
iv浪回調。Minute
iv浪的最低目標是5102點，第二目標是4953點，第三目標是4607點。理論上Minute
iv浪的極限目標是4203點，但是我們認爲這個極限目標的概率很低。
下週短期的支持位是5446和5361點，阻力位在5594和5535點。短期的MACD熊交叉持續，
RSI在週五收市處於平衡狀態。
