investdataflake ｜ MELI: 稅項因素掩蓋仍很強勁的 4Q季績
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增長:
估值:
競爭力:
7為最高
預估1年內股價升幅: 40% to 80%
業務簡介: 拉丁美洲電子商貿及電子支付龍頭企業
拉丁美洲電子商貿及電子支付龍頭 MELI的4Q 季績，營業額增長是高於預期，只是受一次過影響拖累，盈利出現落差。先講topline: 3Q23的總營業額/ commerce/ fintech 營業額增長(固定匯率同比)為 83%/91%/73% (對比 2Q為: 69%/76%/61% )，增長繼續加速。
KPI 方面，E commerce 的 GMV (gross merchandise volume 總交易額) yoy增長由 59%加速至79%。Fintech 方面，撇帳後淨息差再擴濶至39.8%，逾期超過90天貸款比率進一步回落至18.7%，而 digital Account及 acquiring account (即線上/線下)的 TPV (total processing volume) 的 yoy 增長加速至259%/104%。
落差出在利潤率方面，4Q的經營利潤率及純利率分別回落至5.6%/3.9% (3Q:18.2%/ 9.5%)。原因是公司放棄在稅項支出上的官司訴訟，選擇補交稅款; 如果不計這項因素，經營利潤率是較預期佳的13.4%，及環比繼續上升。
The first one-off expense of $320mn relates to ongoing legal proceedings initiated in 2014 that dispute the Brazilian federal tax authority’s ability to charge withholding income tax over payments remitted by our Brazilian subsidiaries to our Argentine subsidiary for the provision of IT support and other services on the grounds that it would violate a convention signed by the two countries to avoid double taxation. Based on recent developments, our legal advisor’s view is the risk of losing the case is now probable.
We booked $58mn of the provision in cost of revenue and $261mn in product development expenses. The total operating expense related to this one-off and incurred in 2023 was approximately $70mn.
The second one-off expense of $31mn – booked in cost of revenue – relates to a recent ruling from Brazil’s highest court that the DIFAL sales tax must be paid for the period April to December 2022, while the legality
of the tax was being questioned.
把24年度的營業額預期調升至198億美元，以美元計增長37%(194億/35%)。純利率預期由10.5% 調升至11.5%，即今年的純利有望增1.3倍。目前預測市盈率不到40倍是相對吸引水平。
第4季季績連結:
MELI Q423 Earnings Presentation (mziq.com)
會員專用Discord Channel 平台，內有更即市及貼市觀點，以及會員交流討論。連結如下:
Disclaimer: 本人為證監會持牌人士，執筆之時，本人沒有持有 MELI 股份。
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